All  the opinion polls over the past 4 weeks showed the Tories and Labour running  neck and neck. It seems that they were wrong. Or were they? I’m not sure that they were, and the reason why I say that  carries a vital lesson for anyone in business or with the ambition of launching a new one.

Throughout the campaign, the  polls were consistent and there were many different polling organisations, all coming to the same conclusion. Their methods are tried, tested and scientific. So where did they go wrong?

Well if they went wrong at all, it was by promoting the impression that their data was an indication of the outcome of the election, rather than what they were actually measuring. I believe that the polls provided a very accurate snapshot of the voting intentions of the British public at the time they were taken. But what you intend to do (or what you believe you intend to do) is not always the same as what you actually do when forced to take action.

All a poll can do is take a measure of what people say they intend to do at some time in the future. Making that decision has no real implications or ‘costs’, either tangible or psychological, and so the decision making process is very different from the one faced when you’re standing in the ballot booth with that piece of paper and stubby pencil in hand. At that point there are implications and costs (even if they’re only opportunity costs) associated with making the decision, and as a result, the decision made can be very different. Last night proved that.

So what has this to do with business?

Well you’ve probably been encouraged to embark on some market research before launching new businesses, projects or products, but  this carries many of the same dangers and drawbacks as an opinion poll. You can ask someone whether they would buy a particular product or use a service if it was available, and they will give you an answer which they genuinely believe to be true. But you will only know for sure once the venture goes live – once there are real consequences to your customers following through on their stated intentions in the form of  money changing hands and the opportunity to do something else being lost. For research to be reliable, it has to be as close to reality as possible. The further the research divorces action and consequences, the less reliable it becomes.

In business that means any research you do needs to mirror real world conditions as closely as is practical.  It’s of little value to ask people whether they would buy something if you offered it to them. Instead you need to find some cost-effective way of  putting that stated intention  to the test. You need to secure firm orders or solid purchases …you need your potential customers to take action that results in some form of commitment on their part –  a commitment that results in them giving something up, whether that be money or the opportunity to buy something else.

Do it any other way and you put yourself in the same position as the pollsters – measuring intentions which may not be transferred into action when the chips are down. As many entrepreneurs have found to their cost, that can be a very expensive mistake.